The Territory's Median Sale Price Just Told an Interesting Story

A year ago, if you'd asked what a typical home across this territory sold for, the answer was $1,325,000. That was the twelve weeks ending August 31, 2025.

This time around, over the twelve weeks ending August 30, 2026, that same territory-wide median landed at $1,250,000. That's a real move, and it's the kind of number that makes you want to know where it's coming from, so let's look under the hood a bit.

Livermore is doing a lot of the lifting here, but it's telling two different stories depending on which part of town you're in. In one Livermore market, the median sale price fell about 8.5% year over year. In that same market, the average sale-to-list ratio actually rose about half a percentage point. Translation: homes are selling for less, but sellers aren't giving up more ground at the negotiating table to get there. That's not what you'd expect if you assumed lower prices meant desperate sellers.

The other Livermore market shows the same shape. Its median sale price fell about 2.7% year over year. Its average sale-to-list ratio also rose there, by about 0.6 percentage points. Same pattern, smaller price move.

Pleasanton looks different. One of the two Pleasanton markets posted a median sale price of $1,707,500 this period, essentially flat versus a year ago. The other Pleasanton market came in at $1,500,000, also flat year over year. Neither budged much, which is its own kind of signal when the territory total moved as much as it did.

Dublin's median sale price this period was $1,299,750, up slightly year over year, so Dublin isn't pulling the territory number down either.

So here's the tension worth sitting with: sellers in the Livermore markets aren't discounting harder to move their homes. If anything, they're getting closer to their asking price than they were a year ago. The territory median fell not because sellers caved, but because of what actually sold. That's a meaningfully different story than "prices are dropping because buyers have the upper hand."

Across the whole territory this period, 497 homes sold, compared with 553 a year ago. Fewer transactions, and a lower median, sitting side by side.

For a homeowner watching this from Livermore, the takeaway isn't panic, it's precision. Sellers there priced to reality and buyers still met them close to full ask. If you're listing in Pleasanton or Dublin, the ground under you has been steadier.

What I'll be watching next: whether the territory median keeps drifting toward that $1,250,000 mark, or whether this twelve-week window turns out to be the low point. Either way, the sale-to-list numbers are the ones that will tell us who actually has the leverage.

Robin